Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish Men's Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament This Season?
As I sit here watching another thrilling Notre Dame basketball game, I can't help but wonder: will this be the season the Fighting Irish men's basketball team finally makes it back to the NCAA Tournament? Having followed this program for over a decade, I've seen both the glorious moments and heartbreaking near-misses. The question of tournament eligibility isn't just about wins and losses—it's about program trajectory, player development, and those intangible qualities that separate bubble teams from tournament locks.
Looking at their current season, the numbers tell an interesting story. Through their first 18 games, the Irish stand at 11-7 overall with a 5-4 record in ACC play. Those might not jump off the page as dominant statistics, but when you dig deeper, you see reasons for optimism. Their NET ranking sits around 45, which typically puts teams squarely on the tournament bubble. What's impressed me most is their resilience in close games—they've won 4 of their 6 contests decided by 5 points or fewer. That clutch performance speaks to mental toughness that could serve them well down the stretch.
I remember talking to a player after their recent victory over Syracuse, and his comments reminded me of something I heard from international players who often bring unique perspectives. He mentioned how important these early conference wins are for building confidence and experience, much like what we see in that reference quote about gaining valuable experience from victories. That mentality—viewing each win as both an accomplishment and a learning opportunity—could be crucial for Notre Dame's tournament push. The players seem to understand that every game matters when you're fighting for postseason positioning.
Their remaining schedule presents both challenges and opportunities. They still have games against Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia—traditional powerhouses that could provide resume-boosting wins. But they also face several teams clustered around them in the ACC standings. Those games become virtual must-wins. From my perspective, they probably need to finish with at least 20 regular season wins and avoid bad losses to teams ranked outside the top 100 in NET. The analytics suggest they need to go at least 9-3 in their final 12 games to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
What gives me hope is the emergence of their sophomore guard tandem. Marcus Hammond and J.R. Konieczny have developed into legitimate scoring threats, combining for nearly 35 points per game in conference play. Their improvement has taken pressure off veteran forward Nate Laszewski, who's been remarkably efficient with his limited touches. I've noticed their offensive sets have become more creative as the season progresses, incorporating more off-ball movement that creates higher-percentage shots. Their effective field goal percentage of 54.2% ranks third in the ACC, which is impressive given their relatively slow tempo.
The defensive end does concern me at times. They're allowing opponents to shoot 35.8% from three-point range, which ranks in the bottom half of the conference. In today's college basketball, where three-point shooting dominates, that could prove problematic against elite shooting teams. However, I've seen gradual improvement in their defensive rotations during this recent stretch where they've won 5 of their last 7 games. Coach Micah Shrewsberry has them playing more disciplined defense without fouling—they average only 15.2 personal fouls per game, among the lowest in Division I.
When I compare this team to previous Notre Dame squads that made the tournament, I see similarities in their offensive efficiency but differences in their defensive approach. The 2022 team that reached the Round of 32 featured more veteran leadership but less athleticism. This year's group feels younger but more dynamic, with multiple players capable of creating their own shot. That versatility could be valuable in the single-elimination format of March Madness, where matchups often dictate success.
The ACC's overall strength—or lack thereof—this season could impact Notre Dame's chances. Currently, the conference projects to send only 4-5 teams to the tournament, compared to 7 just two seasons ago. This means fewer quality win opportunities but also less competition for those coveted bids. In my assessment, Notre Dame likely needs to finish in the top 5 of the ACC standings to feel secure about their at-large chances. Their remaining strength of schedule ranks 28th nationally, giving them ample opportunities to improve their resume.
I'm particularly intrigued by their performance in various analytical metrics. Their KenPom rating has climbed from 68th in November to 42nd currently. Their offensive efficiency ranks 35th nationally, while their defensive efficiency sits at 58th. That imbalance suggests they can score with anyone but need to tighten up defensively to secure those crucial wins against top competition. The analytics community seems split on their tournament chances—some models give them a 68% chance of making the field, while others are more pessimistic at around 42%.
Having watched nearly every game this season, I believe this team has the pieces to make a run. Their ball movement has been exceptional—they average 16.2 assists per game, which ranks in the top 40 nationally. They take care of the basketball, with a turnover percentage of just 14.3%. And they've shown they can win in different ways, whether it's a shootout against NC State or a grind-it-out victory against Virginia Tech. That adaptability will serve them well during the final stretch of conference play.
Ultimately, I think Notre Dame finds its way into the tournament, probably as a 10 or 11 seed. They have just enough talent, the schedule sets up favorably, and Coach Shrewsberry has them trending in the right direction at the perfect time. The experience they're gaining now—both from victories and defeats—will prove invaluable when the pressure mounts in March. While nothing is guaranteed in college basketball, this team has shown the resilience and growth necessary to end their tournament drought. For Irish fans like myself, that's reason enough to remain optimistic as we approach the most exciting part of the season.